Estimating and Projecting Disparities in Pre- and Post-natal Survival using Bayesian Methods

Abstract

It is crucial to monitor demographic and global health indicators accurately in order to optimize resource allocation. This is especially so in developing countries where the improvement of these health indicators is most needed. However, estimating and validating these indicators are fraught with challenges, one of which being the paucity of accurate data. The Bayesian modeling approach implemented in my research provides more objective, data-driven insights into estimation of demographic and global health indicators. We provide a set of important analyses and fill the previous research void on selected indicators. We take account of the data quality that varies across different sources as well as infer the levels and trends of indicators in countries and periods with limited data by data-rich country-years. The resulting estimates provide new insights into the sex ratio at birth and child mortality globally. The methods and results have been used by international agencies for policy making.

Fengqing Chao

Assistant Professor of Computational Social Science

My research interests include statistical demography, global health, Bayesian modeling, and time series analysis.